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Haras El Hodood vs Nogoom El Mostakbal FC — Premier League 2018

Haras El Hodood
Haras El Hodood
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
9/23/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Border Guard Stadium (Haras El-Hodod Stadium) (Al-Iskandarîah (Alexandria))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Haras El Hodood38%
×Draw28%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haras El Hodood
1.24
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 17 away

creates per match

Haras El Hodood
0.89
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
1.12

allows per match

Haras El Hodood
1.17
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
1.59

finishing

Haras El Hodood+0.00on par
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haras El Hodood ↓

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Haras El Hodood or draw
66%
Haras El Hodood or Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
72%
Draw or Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
62%

Winning margin

Haras El Hodood wins by 2+
17%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Haras El Hodood 1+ goals
71%
Haras El Hodood 2+ goals
35%
Haras El Hodood 3+ goals
13%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 1+ goals
68%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 2+ goals
32%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Haras El Hodood (draw refunded)
53%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haras El Hodood at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.17 · 81 matches

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haras El Hodood attack 0.89 + Nogoom El Mostakbal FC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.24

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC attack 1.12 + Haras El Hodood defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Haras El Hodood scores more
38%
level
28%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC scores more
34%

Haras El Hodood at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Haras El Hodood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Haras El Hodood 1–0 Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

Haras El Hodood beat Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 1-0 in Premier League on September 23, 2018.

The match was played at Border Guard Stadium (Haras El-Hodod Stadium) (Al-Iskandarîah (Alexandria)).