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Haras El Hodood vs Misr El Makasa — Premier League 2018

Haras El Hodood
Haras El Hodood
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Misr El Makasa
Misr El Makasa
2/22/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Border Guard Stadium (Haras El-Hodod Stadium) (Al-Iskandarîah (Alexandria))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Haras El Hodood38%
×Draw29%
Misr El Makasa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haras El Hodood
1.13
Misr El Makasa
1.02

Haras El Hodood creates 11% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 68 away

creates per match

Haras El Hodood
0.89
Misr El Makasa
0.87

allows per match

Haras El Hodood
1.17
Misr El Makasa
1.37

finishing

Haras El Hodood+0.00on par
Misr El Makasa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haras El Hodood ↓

Misr El Makasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Haras El Hodood or draw
68%
Haras El Hodood or Misr El Makasa
71%
Draw or Misr El Makasa
62%

Winning margin

Haras El Hodood wins by 2+
16%
Misr El Makasa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Haras El Hodood 1+ goals
68%
Haras El Hodood 2+ goals
31%
Haras El Hodood 3+ goals
11%
Misr El Makasa 1+ goals
64%
Misr El Makasa 2+ goals
27%
Misr El Makasa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Haras El Hodood (draw refunded)
54%
Misr El Makasa (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haras El Hodood at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.17 · 81 matches

Misr El Makasa away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haras El Hodood attack 0.89 + Misr El Makasa defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.13

Misr El Makasa attack 0.87 + Haras El Hodood defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Haras El Hodood scores more
38%
level
29%
Misr El Makasa scores more
32%

Haras El Hodood at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Haras El Hodood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Haras El Hodood 0 – 0 Misr El Makasa

Haras El Hodood and Misr El Makasa drew 0-0 in Premier League on February 22, 2019.

The match was played at Border Guard Stadium (Haras El-Hodod Stadium) (Al-Iskandarîah (Alexandria)).