Haras El Hodood 1–2 Masr: Result & Stats

Haras El Hodood

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Masr

I. Abou-Salima 25'

A. Bakri 45' (pen)

A. Emad 18'

5/7/2026

Premier League · Relegation Group - 9Harras El Hodood Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Haras El Hodood34%

×Draw29%

Masr36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Haras El HodoodExpected goals in this matchMasr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.11

Haras El Hodood

1.07

Masr

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 61 away

0.89

creates per match

1.03

1.19

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Haras El Hodood

0.89

Masr

1.03

allows per match

Haras El Hodood

1.19

Masr

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haras El Hodood+0.00on par

Masr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haras El Hodood ↓

Masr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Haras El Hodood or draw

64%

Haras El Hodood or Masr

71%

Draw or Masr

66%

Winning margin

Haras El Hodood wins by 2+

13%

Masr wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Haras El Hodood 1+ goals

66%

Haras El Hodood 2+ goals

29%

Haras El Hodood 3+ goals

9%

Masr 1+ goals

67%

Masr 2+ goals

30%

Masr 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Haras El Hodood (draw refunded)

49%

Masr (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haras El Hodood at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.19 · 79 matches

Masr away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haras El Hodood attack 0.89 + Masr defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Masr attack 1.03 + Haras El Hodood defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Haras El Hodood scores more

34%

level

29%

Masr scores more

36%

Masr at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Masr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

I. Abou-Salima

Haras El Hodood · D

7.9

Match Events

11'

Abdel Rahman Emad

18'

A. Emad↳ Y. Osama Nabih

25'

I. Abou-Salima↳ M. Ashraf

45'

A. BakriPenalty

46'

Sulahmana Mamadu Bah

46'

F. El Henawy← M. Awad

46'

M. Bah← R. Khalil

46'

A. Gamal← A. Bakri

66'

S. Ibrahim← Y. Osama Nabih

66'

Z. El Sayed← M. Yasser

68'

Abdallah Ahmed Hafez

71'

M. Gyabaah← M. Ashraf

72'

K. Gomaa← A. Emad

73'

M. El Negely← A. Hafez

83'

M. Magli← I. Abou-Salima

83'

90+1'

90+7'

90+5'

90+7'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HarasMasr

Overview

70%Possession30%

20Total Shots10

0.77Expected Goals (xG)1.62

17Corners2

6Fouls14

Shots

20Total Shots10

3On Target2

12Off Target8

5Blocked0

10Inside Box6

10Outside Box4

Passing

70%Possession30%

443Total Passes209

349Accurate Passes126

79%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

-0.44Goals Prevented-0.44

Discipline

6Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3