Haras El Hodood 2–1 Ismaily SC: Result & Stats

Haras El Hodood

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Ismaily SC

I. Abdel Hakeem 34'

A. Gouda 21'

M. Hamdi 10'

12/11/2024

League Cup · Group Stage - 1Borg El Arab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Haras El Hodood47%

×Draw36%

Ismaily SC17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Haras El HodoodExpected goals in this matchIsmaily SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

0.45

Haras El Hodood

0.95

Ismaily SC

0.45

Haras El Hodood creates 111% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

1.00

creates per match

0.50

0.40

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Haras El Hodood

1.00

Ismaily SC

0.50

allows per match

Haras El Hodood

0.40

Ismaily SC

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haras El Hodood+0.00on par

Ismaily SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under83
Over17

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No78
Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haras El Hodood ↓

Ismaily SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–025%

0–111%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–023%

1–111%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (25%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

75%25%1.5

41%59%2.5

17%83%3.5

5%95%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Haras El Hodood or draw

83%

Haras El Hodood or Ismaily SC

64%

Draw or Ismaily SC

53%

Winning margin

Haras El Hodood wins by 2+

18%

Ismaily SC wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Haras El Hodood 1+ goals

61%

Haras El Hodood 2+ goals

25%

Haras El Hodood 3+ goals

7%

Ismaily SC 1+ goals

36%

Ismaily SC 2+ goals

8%

Ismaily SC 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Haras El Hodood (draw refunded)

73%

Ismaily SC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

12%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haras El Hodood at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Ismaily SC away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haras El Hodood attack 1.00 + Ismaily SC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Ismaily SC attack 0.50 + Haras El Hodood defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Haras El Hodood scores more

47%

level

36%

Ismaily SC scores more

17%

Haras El Hodood at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Haras El Hodood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

M. Hamdi

15'

K. Kuassiso

21'

A. Gouda↳ F. El Henawy

34'

I. Abdel Hakeem↳ M. Magli

44'

K. El Sayed← K. El Sayed

54'

M. Abou-Gouda← M. Abou-Gouda

56'

E. Hamdi← E. Hamdi

56'

A. O. El Malawany A.← N. Farag

70'

M. Ashraf← M. Ashraf

70'

M. Mostafa← M. Mostafa

70'

A. Gouda

83'

H. Mohamed← O. El Kot

83'

E. Traore← A. El Dah

90'

M. Mamdouh← A. Oubeid

90'

F. El Henawy← M. EL Qat

90+8'

M. Ammar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff