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Haras El Hodood vs Enppi — League Cup 2021

Haras El Hodood
Haras El Hodoodadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Enppi
Enppi
H. Mohamed 45+4'
5/21/2025League CupLeague Cup · Quarter-finalsHaras El Hodoud Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Haras El Hodood41%
×Draw33%
Enppi26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haras El Hodood
1.00
Enppi
0.73

Haras El Hodood creates 37% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

creates per match

Haras El Hodood
1.00
Enppi
1.06

allows per match

Haras El Hodood
0.40
Enppi
1.00

finishing

Haras El Hodood+0.00on par
Enppi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 75Over: 2575%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 67Yes: 3367%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haras El Hodood ↓

Enppi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Haras El Hodood or draw
74%
Haras El Hodood or Enppi
67%
Draw or Enppi
59%

Winning margin

Haras El Hodood wins by 2+
16%
Enppi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Haras El Hodood 1+ goals
63%
Haras El Hodood 2+ goals
26%
Haras El Hodood 3+ goals
8%
Enppi 1+ goals
52%
Enppi 2+ goals
17%
Enppi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Haras El Hodood (draw refunded)
61%
Enppi (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haras El Hodood at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Enppi away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haras El Hodood attack 1.00 + Enppi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Enppi attack 1.06 + Haras El Hodood defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Haras El Hodood scores more
41%
level
33%
Enppi scores more
26%

Haras El Hodood at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Haras El Hodood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
M. Samir
34'
Oufa
35'
OufaGoal Disallowed - offside
45+4'
H. Mohamed↳ F. El Henawy
48'
A. Gouda
60'
O. Fathi← O. Fathi
61'
K. Yehia← K. Yehia
71'
M. Magli← K. Rafaat
73'
S. Zayed← R. Kabou
73'
M. Samir← A. Khaled
87'
Z. Kamal
87'
Z. Kamal← A. Mahmoud
90+1'
M. Awad← M. Abou Gouda
90+1'
E. Eze← M. EL Qat
90+9'
A. Mahmoud
90+13'
Oufa← A. Zaki
90+14'
M. Sherif← A. Ehab
90+15'
A. El Agouz
90+15'
A. El Agouz
90+15'
A. El Agouz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Haras El Hodood 1–0 Enppi

Haras El Hodood beat Enppi 1-0 in League Cup on May 21, 2025.

Goals: H. Mohamed (45+4').

The match was played at Haras El Hodoud Stadium in Alexandria.