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Haras El Hodood vs El Entag El Harby — Premier League 2018

Haras El Hodood
Haras El Hodood
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
El Entag El Harby
El Entag El Harby
12/23/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Border Guard Stadium (Haras El-Hodod Stadium) (Al-Iskandarîah (Alexandria))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Haras El Hodood36%
×Draw28%
El Entag El Harby35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haras El Hodood
1.17
El Entag El Harby
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 51 away

creates per match

Haras El Hodood
0.89
El Entag El Harby
1.14

allows per match

Haras El Hodood
1.17
El Entag El Harby
1.45

finishing

Haras El Hodood+0.00on par
El Entag El Harby+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haras El Hodood ↓

El Entag El Harby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Haras El Hodood or draw
65%
Haras El Hodood or El Entag El Harby
72%
Draw or El Entag El Harby
64%

Winning margin

Haras El Hodood wins by 2+
15%
El Entag El Harby wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Haras El Hodood 1+ goals
69%
Haras El Hodood 2+ goals
33%
Haras El Hodood 3+ goals
11%
El Entag El Harby 1+ goals
68%
El Entag El Harby 2+ goals
32%
El Entag El Harby 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Haras El Hodood (draw refunded)
51%
El Entag El Harby (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haras El Hodood at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.17 · 81 matches

El Entag El Harby away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haras El Hodood attack 0.89 + El Entag El Harby defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.17

El Entag El Harby attack 1.14 + Haras El Hodood defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Haras El Hodood scores more
36%
level
28%
El Entag El Harby scores more
35%

Haras El Hodood at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Haras El Hodood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Haras El Hodood 2 – 1 El Entag El Harby

Haras El Hodood beat El Entag El Harby 2-1 in Premier League on December 23, 2018.

The match was played at Border Guard Stadium (Haras El-Hodod Stadium) (Al-Iskandarîah (Alexandria)).