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Harare City vs Cranborne Bullets — Premier Soccer League 2026

Harare City
Harare City
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Cranborne Bullets
Cranborne Bullets
2/26/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 5National Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Harare City43%
×Draw31%
Cranborne Bullets26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Harare City
1.13
Cranborne Bullets
0.81

Harare City creates 40% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Harare City
0.94
Cranborne Bullets
0.71

allows per match

Harare City
0.91
Cranborne Bullets
1.32

finishing

Harare City+0.00on par
Cranborne Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harare City ↓

Cranborne Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Harare City or draw
74%
Harare City or Cranborne Bullets
69%
Draw or Cranborne Bullets
57%

Winning margin

Harare City wins by 2+
18%
Cranborne Bullets wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Harare City 1+ goals
68%
Harare City 2+ goals
31%
Harare City 3+ goals
11%
Cranborne Bullets 1+ goals
56%
Cranborne Bullets 2+ goals
19%
Cranborne Bullets 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Harare City (draw refunded)
62%
Cranborne Bullets (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harare City at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.91 · 34 matches

Cranborne Bullets away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harare City attack 0.94 + Cranborne Bullets defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Cranborne Bullets attack 0.71 + Harare City defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Harare City scores more
43%
level
31%
Cranborne Bullets scores more
26%

Harare City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Harare City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Harare City vs Cranborne Bullets

Harare City beat Cranborne Bullets 3-1 in Premier Soccer League on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at National Sports Stadium in Harare.