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Harare City vs Chapungu United — Premier Soccer League 2026

Harare City
Harare City
FT
2 – 0
Chapungu United
Chapungu United
8/29/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 21Rufaro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Harare City37%
×Draw35%
Chapungu United28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Harare City
0.88
Chapungu United
0.72

Harare City creates 22% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Harare City
0.94
Chapungu United
0.53

allows per match

Harare City
0.91
Chapungu United
0.82

finishing

Harare City+0.00on par
Chapungu United+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harare City ↓

Chapungu United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–115%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Harare City or draw
72%
Harare City or Chapungu United
65%
Draw or Chapungu United
63%

Winning margin

Harare City wins by 2+
13%
Chapungu United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Harare City 1+ goals
59%
Harare City 2+ goals
22%
Harare City 3+ goals
6%
Chapungu United 1+ goals
51%
Chapungu United 2+ goals
16%
Chapungu United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Harare City (draw refunded)
57%
Chapungu United (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harare City at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.91 · 34 matches

Chapungu United away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harare City attack 0.94 + Chapungu United defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.88

Chapungu United attack 0.53 + Harare City defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Harare City scores more
37%
level
35%
Chapungu United scores more
28%

Harare City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Harare City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Harare City vs Chapungu United

Harare City beat Chapungu United 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on August 29, 2019.

The match was played at Rufaro Stadium in Harare.