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Hapoel Yeruham vs Maccabi Ironi Sderot — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Yeruham
Hapoel Yeruham
FT
1 – 2
Maccabi Ironi Sderot
Maccabi Ironi Sderot
8/30/2019State CupState Cup · 1st RoundYeruham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Yeruham16%
×Draw20%
Maccabi Ironi Sderot64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Yeruham
1.00
Maccabi Ironi Sderot
2.17

Maccabi Ironi Sderot creates 117% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hapoel Yeruham
0.67
Maccabi Ironi Sderot
1.33

allows per match

Hapoel Yeruham
3.00
Maccabi Ironi Sderot
1.33

finishing

Hapoel Yeruham+0.00on par
Maccabi Ironi Sderot+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Yeruham ↓

Maccabi Ironi Sderot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hapoel Yeruham or draw
36%
Hapoel Yeruham or Maccabi Ironi Sderot
80%
Draw or Maccabi Ironi Sderot
84%

Winning margin

Hapoel Yeruham wins by 2+
6%
Maccabi Ironi Sderot wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Hapoel Yeruham 1+ goals
63%
Hapoel Yeruham 2+ goals
26%
Hapoel Yeruham 3+ goals
8%
Maccabi Ironi Sderot 1+ goals
89%
Maccabi Ironi Sderot 2+ goals
64%
Maccabi Ironi Sderot 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Yeruham (draw refunded)
20%
Maccabi Ironi Sderot (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Yeruham at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Maccabi Ironi Sderot away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Yeruham attack 0.67 + Maccabi Ironi Sderot defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Maccabi Ironi Sderot attack 1.33 + Hapoel Yeruham defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Hapoel Yeruham scores more
16%
level
20%
Maccabi Ironi Sderot scores more
64%

Maccabi Ironi Sderot at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Maccabi Ironi Sderot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Yeruham vs Maccabi Ironi Sderot

Maccabi Ironi Sderot beat Hapoel Yeruham 2-1 in State Cup on August 30, 2019.

The match was played at Yeruham Stadium in Yeruham.