Hapoel Yeruham 0–5 Hapoel Segev Shalom

Hapoel Yeruham

0 – 5

Hapoel Segev Shalom

10/9/2024

State Cup · 3rd Round (Liga Bet)Yeruham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Yeruham33%

×Draw20%

Hapoel Segev Shalom48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel YeruhamExpected goals in this matchHapoel Segev Shalom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

2.38

Hapoel Yeruham

1.96

Hapoel Segev Shalom

2.38

Hapoel Segev Shalom creates 21% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.67

creates per match

1.75

3.00

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Hapoel Yeruham

0.67

Hapoel Segev Shalom

1.75

allows per match

Hapoel Yeruham

3.00

Hapoel Segev Shalom

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Yeruham+0.00on par

Hapoel Segev Shalom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Yeruham ↓

Hapoel Segev Shalom →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Hapoel Yeruham or draw

52%

Hapoel Yeruham or Hapoel Segev Shalom

80%

Draw or Hapoel Segev Shalom

67%

Winning margin

Hapoel Yeruham wins by 2+

17%

Hapoel Segev Shalom wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Hapoel Yeruham 1+ goals

86%

Hapoel Yeruham 2+ goals

58%

Hapoel Yeruham 3+ goals

31%

Hapoel Segev Shalom 1+ goals

91%

Hapoel Segev Shalom 2+ goals

68%

Hapoel Segev Shalom 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Yeruham (draw refunded)

41%

Hapoel Segev Shalom (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Yeruham at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Hapoel Segev Shalom away — creates 1.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Yeruham attack 0.67 + Hapoel Segev Shalom defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 1.96

Hapoel Segev Shalom attack 1.75 + Hapoel Yeruham defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hapoel Yeruham scores more

33%

level

20%

Hapoel Segev Shalom scores more

48%

Hapoel Segev Shalom at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hapoel Segev Shalom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff