Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2–0 Maccabi K. Ata Bialik

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik

1/28/2024

State Cup · 8th RoundHaShalom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm40%

×Draw24%

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Umm al-FahmExpected goals in this matchMaccabi K. Ata Bialik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.52

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

1.61

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

2.40

creates per match

1.83

1.20

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

2.40

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik

1.83

allows per match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

1.20

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm+0.00on par

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm ↓

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik →

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm or draw

64%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm or Maccabi K. Ata Bialik

76%

Draw or Maccabi K. Ata Bialik

60%

Winning margin

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm wins by 2+

20%

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1+ goals

80%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2+ goals

48%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3+ goals

22%

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 1+ goals

78%

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 2+ goals

45%

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (draw refunded)

53%

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm attack 2.40 + Maccabi K. Ata Bialik defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.61

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik attack 1.83 + Hapoel Umm al-Fahm defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm scores more

40%

level

24%

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik scores more

36%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Umm al-Fahm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff