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Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Maccabi Haifa — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Haifa
1/14/2020State CupState Cup · 8th FinalsAfula Illit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm38%
×Draw23%
Maccabi Haifa38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.65
Maccabi Haifa
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
2.40
Maccabi Haifa
2.11

allows per match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.20
Maccabi Haifa
0.89

finishing

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm+0.00on par
Maccabi Haifa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm ↓

Maccabi Haifa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm or draw
62%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm or Maccabi Haifa
77%
Draw or Maccabi Haifa
62%

Winning margin

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm wins by 2+
19%
Maccabi Haifa wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1+ goals
81%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2+ goals
49%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3+ goals
23%
Maccabi Haifa 1+ goals
81%
Maccabi Haifa 2+ goals
49%
Maccabi Haifa 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (draw refunded)
50%
Maccabi Haifa (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Maccabi Haifa away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm attack 2.40 + Maccabi Haifa defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.65

Maccabi Haifa attack 2.11 + Hapoel Umm al-Fahm defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm scores more
38%
level
23%
Maccabi Haifa scores more
38%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hapoel Umm al-Fahm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Maccabi Haifa

Maccabi Haifa beat Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1-0 in State Cup on January 14, 2020.

The match was played at Afula Illit Stadium in Afula.