Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3–1 Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

12/15/2023

Liga Leumit · Round 13HaShalom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm26%

×Draw28%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Umm al-FahmExpected goals in this matchIroni Kiryat Shmona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.31

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

0.90

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.31

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 46% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 18 away

1.13

creates per match

1.50

1.13

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

1.13

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.50

allows per match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

1.13

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm+0.00on par

Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm ↓

Ironi Kiryat Shmona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm or draw

54%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm or Ironi Kiryat Shmona

72%

Draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona

74%

Winning margin

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm wins by 2+

9%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1+ goals

59%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2+ goals

23%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3+ goals

6%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals

73%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals

38%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (draw refunded)

36%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 109 matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm attack 1.13 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.90

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.50 + Hapoel Umm al-Fahm defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm scores more

26%

level

28%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more

46%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff