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Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Ihud Bnei Shfaram — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
3/8/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 25HaShalom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm57%
×Draw22%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.96
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.12

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm creates 75% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 19 away

creates per match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.13
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.11

allows per match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.13
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
2.79

finishing

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm+0.00on par
Ihud Bnei Shfaram+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm ↓

Ihud Bnei Shfaram →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm or draw
79%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm or Ihud Bnei Shfaram
78%
Draw or Ihud Bnei Shfaram
43%

Winning margin

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm wins by 2+
33%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1+ goals
86%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2+ goals
58%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3+ goals
31%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1+ goals
67%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2+ goals
31%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (draw refunded)
73%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 109 matches

Ihud Bnei Shfaram away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm attack 1.13 + Ihud Bnei Shfaram defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 1.96

Ihud Bnei Shfaram attack 1.11 + Hapoel Umm al-Fahm defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm scores more
57%
level
22%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram scores more
21%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hapoel Umm al-Fahm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Ihud Bnei Shfaram

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm beat Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3-1 in Liga Leumit on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at HaShalom Stadium in Umm al-Fahm.