Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1–2 Bnei Yehuda: Result & Stats

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bnei Yehuda

9/21/2023

Liga Leumit · Round 5HaShalom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm37%

×Draw27%

Bnei Yehuda36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Umm al-FahmExpected goals in this matchBnei Yehuda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.23

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

1.26

Bnei Yehuda

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 94 away

1.13

creates per match

1.32

1.13

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

1.13

Bnei Yehuda

1.32

allows per match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

1.13

Bnei Yehuda

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm+0.00on par

Bnei Yehuda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm ↓

Bnei Yehuda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm or draw

64%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm or Bnei Yehuda

73%

Draw or Bnei Yehuda

63%

Winning margin

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm wins by 2+

16%

Bnei Yehuda wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1+ goals

72%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2+ goals

36%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3+ goals

13%

Bnei Yehuda 1+ goals

71%

Bnei Yehuda 2+ goals

35%

Bnei Yehuda 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (draw refunded)

51%

Bnei Yehuda (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 109 matches

Bnei Yehuda away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.39 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm attack 1.13 + Bnei Yehuda defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Bnei Yehuda attack 1.32 + Hapoel Umm al-Fahm defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm scores more

37%

level

27%

Bnei Yehuda scores more

36%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hapoel Umm al-Fahm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff