Hapoel Tel Aviv 1–2 Maccabi Bnei Raina

Hapoel Tel Aviv

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Maccabi Bnei Raina

4/22/2023

Ligat Ha'al · Relegation Round - 4Bloomfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Hapoel Tel Aviv40%

×Draw27%

Maccabi Bnei Raina32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Tel AvivExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Bnei Raina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.13

Hapoel Tel Aviv

1.29

Maccabi Bnei Raina

1.13

Hapoel Tel Aviv creates 14% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 68 away

1.18

creates per match

1.01

1.24

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Hapoel Tel Aviv

1.18

Maccabi Bnei Raina

1.01

allows per match

Hapoel Tel Aviv

1.24

Maccabi Bnei Raina

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Tel Aviv+0.00on par

Maccabi Bnei Raina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Tel Aviv ↓

Maccabi Bnei Raina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hapoel Tel Aviv or draw

68%

Hapoel Tel Aviv or Maccabi Bnei Raina

73%

Draw or Maccabi Bnei Raina

60%

Winning margin

Hapoel Tel Aviv wins by 2+

18%

Maccabi Bnei Raina wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hapoel Tel Aviv 1+ goals

72%

Hapoel Tel Aviv 2+ goals

37%

Hapoel Tel Aviv 3+ goals

14%

Maccabi Bnei Raina 1+ goals

68%

Maccabi Bnei Raina 2+ goals

31%

Maccabi Bnei Raina 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Tel Aviv (draw refunded)

55%

Maccabi Bnei Raina (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Tel Aviv at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.24 · 101 matches

Maccabi Bnei Raina away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Tel Aviv attack 1.18 + Maccabi Bnei Raina defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Maccabi Bnei Raina attack 1.01 + Hapoel Tel Aviv defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Tel Aviv scores more

40%

level

27%

Maccabi Bnei Raina scores more

32%

Hapoel Tel Aviv at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Tel Aviv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff