Hapoel Tel Aviv 4–0 Hapoel Petah Tikva

Hapoel Tel Aviv

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Hapoel Petah Tikva

12/6/2025

Ligat Ha'al · Round 13Bloomfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Hapoel Tel Aviv45%

×Draw25%

Hapoel Petah Tikva29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Tel AvivExpected goals in this matchHapoel Petah Tikva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.17

Hapoel Tel Aviv

1.52

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.17

Hapoel Tel Aviv creates 30% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 35 away

1.18

creates per match

1.09

1.24

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Hapoel Tel Aviv

1.18

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.09

allows per match

Hapoel Tel Aviv

1.24

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Tel Aviv+0.00on par

Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Tel Aviv ↓

Hapoel Petah Tikva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Hapoel Tel Aviv or draw

71%

Hapoel Tel Aviv or Hapoel Petah Tikva

75%

Draw or Hapoel Petah Tikva

55%

Winning margin

Hapoel Tel Aviv wins by 2+

23%

Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hapoel Tel Aviv 1+ goals

78%

Hapoel Tel Aviv 2+ goals

45%

Hapoel Tel Aviv 3+ goals

20%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals

69%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals

33%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Tel Aviv (draw refunded)

61%

Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Tel Aviv at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.24 · 101 matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Tel Aviv attack 1.18 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.52

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.09 + Hapoel Tel Aviv defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hapoel Tel Aviv scores more

45%

level

25%

Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more

29%

Hapoel Tel Aviv at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hapoel Tel Aviv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff