Hapoel Tel Aviv 1–0 Ashdod: Result & Stats

Hapoel Tel Aviv

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ashdod

L. Loizou 84'

1/4/2026

Ligat Ha'al · Round 17Bloomfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hapoel Tel Aviv55%

×Draw24%

Ashdod21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Tel AvivExpected goals in this matchAshdod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.92

Hapoel Tel Aviv

1.68

Ashdod

0.92

Hapoel Tel Aviv creates 83% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

1.83

creates per match

1.16

0.67

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Hapoel Tel Aviv

1.83

Ashdod

1.16

allows per match

Hapoel Tel Aviv

0.67

Ashdod

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Tel Aviv+0.00on par

Ashdod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Tel Aviv ↓

Ashdod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Tel Aviv or draw

79%

Hapoel Tel Aviv or Ashdod

76%

Draw or Ashdod

45%

Winning margin

Hapoel Tel Aviv wins by 2+

30%

Ashdod wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hapoel Tel Aviv 1+ goals

81%

Hapoel Tel Aviv 2+ goals

50%

Hapoel Tel Aviv 3+ goals

24%

Ashdod 1+ goals

60%

Ashdod 2+ goals

23%

Ashdod 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Tel Aviv (draw refunded)

73%

Ashdod (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Tel Aviv at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

Ashdod away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Tel Aviv attack 1.83 + Ashdod defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.68

Ashdod attack 1.16 + Hapoel Tel Aviv defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Hapoel Tel Aviv scores more

55%

level

24%

Ashdod scores more

21%

Hapoel Tel Aviv at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hapoel Tel Aviv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

75

L. Loizou

Hapoel Tel Aviv · F

8.2

Match Events

29'

33'

44'

55'

58'

58'

D. Dappa← Falcao

64'

64'

71'

74'

74'

77'

M. Yashilirmak← J. Batoum

77'

N. Muche← R. Gordana

82'

O. N. Azo← I. Tamam

84'

L. Loizou

88'

A. Cohen← R. Alkoukin

88'

E. Y. Kancepolsky← L. Loizou

88'

N. Dabush← A. Yamin

89'

Andrian Kraev

90+2'

Chico

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HapoelAshdod

Overview

53%Possession47%

13Total Shots13

3Corners3

22Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots13

4On Target3

5Off Target7

4Blocked3

11Inside Box4

2Outside Box9

Passing

53%Possession47%

420Total Passes359

353Accurate Passes296

84%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

22Fouls11

6Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

0Offsides6