Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1–1 Sektzia Nes Tziona

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sektzia Nes Tziona

11/17/2023

Liga Leumit · Round 8Haberfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion41%

×Draw27%

Sektzia Nes Tziona32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Rishon LeZionExpected goals in this matchSektzia Nes Tziona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.17

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.35

Sektzia Nes Tziona

1.17

Hapoel Rishon LeZion creates 15% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 55 away

1.24

creates per match

1.13

1.21

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.24

Sektzia Nes Tziona

1.13

allows per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.21

Sektzia Nes Tziona

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par

Sektzia Nes Tziona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Rishon LeZion ↓

Sektzia Nes Tziona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Rishon LeZion or draw

68%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion or Sektzia Nes Tziona

73%

Draw or Sektzia Nes Tziona

59%

Winning margin

Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+

19%

Sektzia Nes Tziona wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals

74%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals

39%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals

15%

Sektzia Nes Tziona 1+ goals

69%

Sektzia Nes Tziona 2+ goals

33%

Sektzia Nes Tziona 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)

56%

Sektzia Nes Tziona (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.21 · 131 matches

Sektzia Nes Tziona away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.24 + Sektzia Nes Tziona defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sektzia Nes Tziona attack 1.13 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more

41%

level

27%

Sektzia Nes Tziona scores more

32%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hapoel Rishon LeZion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff