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Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1/31/2025Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 21Haberfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion37%
×Draw26%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.35
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 131 home / 74 away

creates per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.24
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.46

allows per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.21
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.46

finishing

Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Rishon LeZion ↓

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hapoel Rishon LeZion or draw
63%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
74%
Draw or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
63%

Winning margin

Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+
17%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals
74%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals
39%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals
15%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals
74%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals
38%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)
51%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.21 · 131 matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.24 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.35

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.46 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more
37%
level
26%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more
37%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hapoel Rishon LeZion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1–1 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Hapoel Rishon LeZion and Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa drew 1-1 in Liga Leumit on January 31, 2025.

The match was played at Haberfeld Stadium in Rishon LeZion.