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Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Maccabi Herzliya — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Maccabi Herzliya
Maccabi Herzliya
D. Jan 50'
P. Shifman 41'
W. Aponza 37'
5/15/2026Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Promotion Group - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion41%
×Draw26%
Maccabi Herzliya33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.42
Maccabi Herzliya
1.24

Hapoel Rishon LeZion creates 15% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 56 away

creates per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.24
Maccabi Herzliya
1.27

allows per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.21
Maccabi Herzliya
1.59

finishing

Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par
Maccabi Herzliya+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Rishon LeZion ↓

Maccabi Herzliya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hapoel Rishon LeZion or draw
67%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion or Maccabi Herzliya
74%
Draw or Maccabi Herzliya
59%

Winning margin

Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+
20%
Maccabi Herzliya wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals
76%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals
41%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals
17%
Maccabi Herzliya 1+ goals
71%
Maccabi Herzliya 2+ goals
35%
Maccabi Herzliya 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)
56%
Maccabi Herzliya (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.21 · 131 matches

Maccabi Herzliya away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.24 + Maccabi Herzliya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

Maccabi Herzliya attack 1.27 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more
41%
level
26%
Maccabi Herzliya scores more
33%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hapoel Rishon LeZion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
W. Aponza
41'
P. Shifman
50'
D. Jan
53'
F. Najar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1–2 Maccabi Herzliya

Maccabi Herzliya beat Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2-1 in Liga Leumit on May 15, 2026.

Goals: W. Aponza (37'), P. Shifman (41'), D. Jan (50').