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Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Kafr Qasim — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kafr Qasim
Kafr Qasim
3/30/2026Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 26Haberfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion38%
×Draw28%
Kafr Qasim34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.21
Kafr Qasim
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 131 home / 128 away

creates per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.24
Kafr Qasim
1.06

allows per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.21
Kafr Qasim
1.17

finishing

Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par
Kafr Qasim+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Rishon LeZion ↓

Kafr Qasim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Rishon LeZion or draw
66%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion or Kafr Qasim
72%
Draw or Kafr Qasim
62%

Winning margin

Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+
16%
Kafr Qasim wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals
70%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals
34%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals
12%
Kafr Qasim 1+ goals
68%
Kafr Qasim 2+ goals
32%
Kafr Qasim 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)
52%
Kafr Qasim (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.21 · 131 matches

Kafr Qasim away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.17 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.24 + Kafr Qasim defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Kafr Qasim attack 1.06 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more
38%
level
28%
Kafr Qasim scores more
34%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hapoel Rishon LeZion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Kafr Qasim

Kafr Qasim beat Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2-0 in Liga Leumit on March 30, 2026.

The match was played at Haberfeld Stadium in Rishon le-Zion (Rishon LeZion).