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Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Hapoel Kfar Saba — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Hapoel Kfar Saba
2/20/2026Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 24Haberfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion36%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Kfar Saba37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.23
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 116 home / 95 away

creates per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.17
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.25

allows per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.25
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.28

finishing

Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par
Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Rishon LeZion ↓

Hapoel Kfar Saba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Rishon LeZion or draw
63%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion or Hapoel Kfar Saba
73%
Draw or Hapoel Kfar Saba
64%

Winning margin

Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+
15%
Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals
71%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals
35%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals
13%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals
71%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals
36%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)
49%
Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.25 · 116 matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.17 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 1.25 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more
36%
level
27%
Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more
37%

Hapoel Kfar Saba at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hapoel Kfar Saba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Hapoel Kfar Saba

Hapoel Rishon LeZion beat Hapoel Kfar Saba 2-0 in Liga Leumit on February 20, 2026.

The match was played at Haberfeld Stadium in Rishon le-Zion (Rishon LeZion).