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Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Hapoel Iksal — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hapoel Iksal
Hapoel Iksal
3/30/2021Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 29Haberfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion44%
×Draw28%
Hapoel Iksal28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.34
Hapoel Iksal
1.02

Hapoel Rishon LeZion creates 31% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 42 away

creates per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.19
Hapoel Iksal
0.81

allows per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.23
Hapoel Iksal
1.50

finishing

Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par
Hapoel Iksal+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Rishon LeZion ↓

Hapoel Iksal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Rishon LeZion or draw
72%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion or Hapoel Iksal
72%
Draw or Hapoel Iksal
56%

Winning margin

Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+
20%
Hapoel Iksal wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals
74%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals
39%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals
15%
Hapoel Iksal 1+ goals
64%
Hapoel Iksal 2+ goals
27%
Hapoel Iksal 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)
61%
Hapoel Iksal (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 118 matches

Hapoel Iksal away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.50 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.19 + Hapoel Iksal defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Hapoel Iksal attack 0.81 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more
44%
level
28%
Hapoel Iksal scores more
28%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hapoel Rishon LeZion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Hapoel Iksal

Hapoel Rishon LeZion beat Hapoel Iksal 2-1 in Liga Leumit on March 30, 2021.

The match was played at Haberfeld Stadium in Rishon LeZion.