Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1–1 Hapoel Acre

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hapoel Acre

5/3/2024

Liga Leumit · Relegation Round - 3Haberfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion38%

×Draw28%

Hapoel Acre34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Rishon LeZionExpected goals in this matchHapoel Acre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.14

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.23

Hapoel Acre

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 131 home / 130 away

1.24

creates per match

1.07

1.21

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.24

Hapoel Acre

1.07

allows per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.21

Hapoel Acre

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par

Hapoel Acre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Rishon LeZion ↓

Hapoel Acre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Rishon LeZion or draw

66%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion or Hapoel Acre

72%

Draw or Hapoel Acre

62%

Winning margin

Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+

17%

Hapoel Acre wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals

71%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals

35%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals

13%

Hapoel Acre 1+ goals

68%

Hapoel Acre 2+ goals

32%

Hapoel Acre 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)

53%

Hapoel Acre (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.21 · 131 matches

Hapoel Acre away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.23 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.24 + Hapoel Acre defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Hapoel Acre attack 1.07 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more

38%

level

28%

Hapoel Acre scores more

34%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hapoel Rishon LeZion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff