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Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Dimona — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dimona
Dimona
1/28/2024State CupState Cup · 8th RoundHaberfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion40%
×Draw26%
Dimona34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.39
Dimona
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.40
Dimona
1.75

allows per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
0.80
Dimona
1.38

finishing

Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par
Dimona+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Rishon LeZion ↓

Dimona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hapoel Rishon LeZion or draw
66%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion or Dimona
74%
Draw or Dimona
60%

Winning margin

Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+
19%
Dimona wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals
75%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals
40%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals
16%
Dimona 1+ goals
72%
Dimona 2+ goals
36%
Dimona 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)
54%
Dimona (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Dimona away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.40 + Dimona defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.39

Dimona attack 1.75 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more
40%
level
26%
Dimona scores more
34%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Rishon LeZion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Dimona

Hapoel Rishon LeZion beat Dimona 1-0 in State Cup on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Haberfeld Stadium in Rishon LeZion.