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Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Bnei Yehuda — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Bnei Yehuda
Bnei Yehuda
3/15/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 26Haberfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion38%
×Draw27%
Bnei Yehuda36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.31
Bnei Yehuda
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 131 home / 94 away

creates per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.24
Bnei Yehuda
1.32

allows per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.21
Bnei Yehuda
1.39

finishing

Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par
Bnei Yehuda+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Rishon LeZion ↓

Bnei Yehuda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Rishon LeZion or draw
64%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion or Bnei Yehuda
73%
Draw or Bnei Yehuda
62%

Winning margin

Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+
17%
Bnei Yehuda wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals
73%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals
38%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals
14%
Bnei Yehuda 1+ goals
72%
Bnei Yehuda 2+ goals
36%
Bnei Yehuda 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)
51%
Bnei Yehuda (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.21 · 131 matches

Bnei Yehuda away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.39 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.24 + Bnei Yehuda defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bnei Yehuda attack 1.32 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more
38%
level
27%
Bnei Yehuda scores more
36%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hapoel Rishon LeZion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Rishon LeZion 0–2 Bnei Yehuda

Bnei Yehuda beat Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2-0 in Liga Leumit on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Haberfeld Stadium in Rishon LeZion.