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Hapoel Ramat HaSharon vs Sektzia Nes Tziona — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
FT
5 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sektzia Nes Tziona
Sektzia Nes Tziona
9/28/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 6Yankele Grundman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon42%
×Draw26%
Sektzia Nes Tziona32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.44
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.23

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon creates 17% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 55 away

creates per match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.41
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.13

allows per match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.32
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.47

finishing

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon+0.00on par
Sektzia Nes Tziona+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon ↓

Sektzia Nes Tziona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon or draw
68%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon or Sektzia Nes Tziona
74%
Draw or Sektzia Nes Tziona
58%

Winning margin

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon wins by 2+
20%
Sektzia Nes Tziona wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 1+ goals
76%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 2+ goals
42%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 3+ goals
18%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 1+ goals
71%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 2+ goals
35%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon (draw refunded)
57%
Sektzia Nes Tziona (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

Sektzia Nes Tziona away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon attack 1.41 + Sektzia Nes Tziona defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sektzia Nes Tziona attack 1.13 + Hapoel Ramat HaSharon defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon scores more
42%
level
26%
Sektzia Nes Tziona scores more
32%

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hapoel Ramat HaSharon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Ramat HaSharon vs Sektzia Nes Tziona

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon beat Sektzia Nes Tziona 5-2 in Liga Leumit on September 28, 2023.

The match was played at Yankele Grundman Stadium in Ramat-ha’Sharon.