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Hapoel Ramat HaSharon vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
12/15/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 13Yankele Grundman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon39%
×Draw25%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.44
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 74 away

creates per match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.41
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.46

allows per match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.32
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.46

finishing

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon+0.00on par
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon ↓

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon or draw
64%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
75%
Draw or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
61%

Winning margin

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon wins by 2+
18%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 1+ goals
76%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 2+ goals
42%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 3+ goals
18%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals
75%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals
40%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon (draw refunded)
52%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon attack 1.41 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.46 + Hapoel Ramat HaSharon defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon scores more
39%
level
25%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more
36%

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hapoel Ramat HaSharon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Ramat HaSharon vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa beat Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 4-0 in Liga Leumit on December 15, 2023.

The match was played at Yankele Grundman Stadium in Ramat-ha’Sharon.