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Hapoel Ramat HaSharon vs Ironi Tiberias — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Tiberias
1/13/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 19Lod Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon33%
×Draw25%
Ironi Tiberias42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.28
Ironi Tiberias
1.48

Ironi Tiberias creates 16% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 36 away

creates per match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.43
Ironi Tiberias
1.64

allows per match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.31
Ironi Tiberias
1.14

finishing

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon+0.00on par
Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon ↓

Ironi Tiberias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon or draw
58%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon or Ironi Tiberias
75%
Draw or Ironi Tiberias
67%

Winning margin

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon wins by 2+
14%
Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 1+ goals
72%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 2+ goals
37%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 3+ goals
14%
Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals
77%
Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals
43%
Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon (draw refunded)
44%
Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.31 · 96 matches

Ironi Tiberias away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon attack 1.43 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.28

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.64 + Hapoel Ramat HaSharon defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon scores more
33%
level
25%
Ironi Tiberias scores more
42%

Ironi Tiberias at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Ramat HaSharon vs Ironi Tiberias

Ironi Tiberias beat Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 3-1 in Liga Leumit on January 13, 2023.

The match was played at Lod Municipal Stadium in Bnei-Lod.