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Hapoel Ramat HaSharon vs Ihud Bnei Shfaram — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
FT
6 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
4/8/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 29Yankele Grundman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon57%
×Draw21%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
2.10
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.22

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon creates 72% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 19 away

creates per match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.41
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.11

allows per match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.32
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
2.79

finishing

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon+0.00on par
Ihud Bnei Shfaram+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon ↓

Ihud Bnei Shfaram →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon or draw
78%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon or Ihud Bnei Shfaram
79%
Draw or Ihud Bnei Shfaram
43%

Winning margin

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon wins by 2+
35%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 1+ goals
88%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 2+ goals
62%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 3+ goals
35%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1+ goals
70%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2+ goals
34%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon (draw refunded)
73%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

Ihud Bnei Shfaram away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon attack 1.41 + Ihud Bnei Shfaram defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.10

Ihud Bnei Shfaram attack 1.11 + Hapoel Ramat HaSharon defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon scores more
57%
level
21%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram scores more
22%

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hapoel Ramat HaSharon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Ramat HaSharon vs Ihud Bnei Shfaram

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon beat Ihud Bnei Shfaram 6-3 in Liga Leumit on April 8, 2024.

The match was played at Yankele Grundman Stadium in Ramat-ha’Sharon.