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Hapoel Ramat HaSharon vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1/6/2025Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 17Grundman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon42%
×Draw26%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.42
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.19

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon creates 19% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 112 away

creates per match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.41
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.06

allows per match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.32
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.44

finishing

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon+0.00on par
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon ↓

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon or draw
68%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
74%
Draw or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
58%

Winning margin

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon wins by 2+
20%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 1+ goals
76%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 2+ goals
41%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 3+ goals
17%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1+ goals
70%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2+ goals
33%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon (draw refunded)
57%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon attack 1.41 + Hapoel Umm al-Fahm defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm attack 1.06 + Hapoel Ramat HaSharon defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon scores more
42%
level
26%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm scores more
32%

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hapoel Ramat HaSharon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 2–1 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon beat Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2-1 in Liga Leumit on January 6, 2025.

The match was played at Grundman Stadium in Ramat-ha’Sharon.