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Hapoel Ramat HaSharon vs Hapoel Rishon LeZion — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
10/29/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 11Grundman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon40%
×Draw26%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.37
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.25

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon creates 10% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 129 away

creates per match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.41
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.18

allows per match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.32
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.33

finishing

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon+0.00on par
Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon ↓

Hapoel Rishon LeZion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon or draw
66%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon or Hapoel Rishon LeZion
74%
Draw or Hapoel Rishon LeZion
60%

Winning margin

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon wins by 2+
18%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 1+ goals
75%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 2+ goals
40%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 3+ goals
16%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals
71%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals
36%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon (draw refunded)
54%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon attack 1.41 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.37

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.18 + Hapoel Ramat HaSharon defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon scores more
40%
level
26%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more
34%

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Ramat HaSharon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Ramat HaSharon vs Hapoel Rishon LeZion

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon beat Hapoel Rishon LeZion 4-1 in Liga Leumit on October 29, 2024.

The match was played at Grundman Stadium in Ramat-ha’Sharon.