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Hapoel Ramat HaSharon vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
3/22/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 27Yankele Grundman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon41%
×Draw26%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.42
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.27

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon creates 12% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 113 away

creates per match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.41
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.23

allows per match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.32
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.42

finishing

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon+0.00on par
Hapoel Nazareth Illit+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon ↓

Hapoel Nazareth Illit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon or draw
66%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon or Hapoel Nazareth Illit
74%
Draw or Hapoel Nazareth Illit
59%

Winning margin

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon wins by 2+
19%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 1+ goals
76%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 2+ goals
41%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 3+ goals
17%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1+ goals
72%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2+ goals
36%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon (draw refunded)
55%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

Hapoel Nazareth Illit away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.42 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon attack 1.41 + Hapoel Nazareth Illit defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Hapoel Nazareth Illit attack 1.23 + Hapoel Ramat HaSharon defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon scores more
41%
level
26%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit scores more
34%

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hapoel Ramat HaSharon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 1–1 Hapoel Nazareth Illit

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon and Hapoel Nazareth Illit drew 1-1 in Liga Leumit on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Yankele Grundman Stadium in Ramat-ha’Sharon.