Hapoel Ramat Gan 0–1 Kafr Qasim: Result & Stats

Hapoel Ramat Gan

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kafr Qasim

5/10/2024

Liga Leumit · Relegation Round - 5National Stadium Ramat Gan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Hapoel Ramat Gan43%

×Draw27%

Kafr Qasim30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Ramat GanExpected goals in this matchKafr Qasim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.08

Hapoel Ramat Gan

1.34

Kafr Qasim

1.08

Hapoel Ramat Gan creates 24% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 128 away

1.52

creates per match

1.06

1.11

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Hapoel Ramat Gan

1.52

Kafr Qasim

1.06

allows per match

Hapoel Ramat Gan

1.11

Kafr Qasim

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Ramat Gan+0.00on par

Kafr Qasim+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Ramat Gan ↓

Kafr Qasim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hapoel Ramat Gan or draw

70%

Hapoel Ramat Gan or Kafr Qasim

73%

Draw or Kafr Qasim

57%

Winning margin

Hapoel Ramat Gan wins by 2+

20%

Kafr Qasim wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hapoel Ramat Gan 1+ goals

74%

Hapoel Ramat Gan 2+ goals

39%

Hapoel Ramat Gan 3+ goals

15%

Kafr Qasim 1+ goals

66%

Kafr Qasim 2+ goals

29%

Kafr Qasim 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Ramat Gan (draw refunded)

59%

Kafr Qasim (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Ramat Gan at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 130 matches

Kafr Qasim away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.17 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Ramat Gan attack 1.52 + Kafr Qasim defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.34

Kafr Qasim attack 1.06 + Hapoel Ramat Gan defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hapoel Ramat Gan scores more

43%

level

27%

Kafr Qasim scores more

30%

Hapoel Ramat Gan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hapoel Ramat Gan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Ramat Gan 0–1 Kafr Qasim

Kafr Qasim beat Hapoel Ramat Gan 1-0 in Liga Leumit on May 10, 2024.

The match was played at National Stadium Ramat Gan in Ramat Gan.

Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Kafr Qasim — Liga Leumit 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Ramat Gan 0–1 Kafr Qasim