Hapoel Ramat Gan 1–1 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Hapoel Ramat Gan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

4/12/2024

Liga Leumit · Round 30National Stadium Ramat Gan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Hapoel Ramat Gan46%

×Draw26%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Ramat GanExpected goals in this matchHapoel Umm al-Fahm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.08

Hapoel Ramat Gan

1.48

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

1.08

Hapoel Ramat Gan creates 37% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 112 away

1.52

creates per match

1.06

1.11

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Hapoel Ramat Gan

1.52

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

1.06

allows per match

Hapoel Ramat Gan

1.11

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Ramat Gan+0.00on par

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Ramat Gan ↓

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Ramat Gan or draw

72%

Hapoel Ramat Gan or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

74%

Draw or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

54%

Winning margin

Hapoel Ramat Gan wins by 2+

23%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hapoel Ramat Gan 1+ goals

77%

Hapoel Ramat Gan 2+ goals

43%

Hapoel Ramat Gan 3+ goals

19%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1+ goals

66%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2+ goals

29%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Ramat Gan (draw refunded)

63%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Ramat Gan at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 130 matches

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Ramat Gan attack 1.52 + Hapoel Umm al-Fahm defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.48

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm attack 1.06 + Hapoel Ramat Gan defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hapoel Ramat Gan scores more

46%

level

26%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm scores more

28%

Hapoel Ramat Gan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hapoel Ramat Gan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff