Hapoel Ramat Gan 2–0 Hapoel Rishon LeZion

Hapoel Ramat Gan

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

4/4/2025

Liga Leumit · Promotion Group - 1National Stadium Ramat Gan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Hapoel Ramat Gan43%

×Draw26%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Ramat GanExpected goals in this matchHapoel Rishon LeZion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.15

Hapoel Ramat Gan

1.43

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.15

Hapoel Ramat Gan creates 24% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 129 away

1.52

creates per match

1.18

1.11

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Hapoel Ramat Gan

1.52

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.18

allows per match

Hapoel Ramat Gan

1.11

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Ramat Gan+0.00on par

Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Ramat Gan ↓

Hapoel Rishon LeZion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Ramat Gan or draw

70%

Hapoel Ramat Gan or Hapoel Rishon LeZion

74%

Draw or Hapoel Rishon LeZion

57%

Winning margin

Hapoel Ramat Gan wins by 2+

21%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hapoel Ramat Gan 1+ goals

76%

Hapoel Ramat Gan 2+ goals

42%

Hapoel Ramat Gan 3+ goals

17%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals

68%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals

32%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Ramat Gan (draw refunded)

59%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Ramat Gan at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 130 matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Ramat Gan attack 1.52 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.18 + Hapoel Ramat Gan defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hapoel Ramat Gan scores more

43%

level

26%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more

30%

Hapoel Ramat Gan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hapoel Ramat Gan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff