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Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Hapoel Acre — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Ramat Gan
Hapoel Ramat Gan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hapoel Acre
Hapoel Acre
11/1/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 12National Stadium Ramat Gan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Hapoel Ramat Gan43%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Acre30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.38
Hapoel Acre
1.09

Hapoel Ramat Gan creates 27% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 130 away

creates per match

Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.52
Hapoel Acre
1.07

allows per match

Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.11
Hapoel Acre
1.23

finishing

Hapoel Ramat Gan+0.00on par
Hapoel Acre+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Ramat Gan ↓

Hapoel Acre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hapoel Ramat Gan or draw
70%
Hapoel Ramat Gan or Hapoel Acre
73%
Draw or Hapoel Acre
57%

Winning margin

Hapoel Ramat Gan wins by 2+
21%
Hapoel Acre wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hapoel Ramat Gan 1+ goals
75%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 2+ goals
40%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 3+ goals
16%
Hapoel Acre 1+ goals
66%
Hapoel Acre 2+ goals
30%
Hapoel Acre 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Ramat Gan (draw refunded)
59%
Hapoel Acre (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Ramat Gan at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 130 matches

Hapoel Acre away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.23 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Ramat Gan attack 1.52 + Hapoel Acre defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

Hapoel Acre attack 1.07 + Hapoel Ramat Gan defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hapoel Ramat Gan scores more
43%
level
27%
Hapoel Acre scores more
30%

Hapoel Ramat Gan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hapoel Ramat Gan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Ramat Gan 2–0 Hapoel Acre

Hapoel Ramat Gan beat Hapoel Acre 2-0 in Liga Leumit on November 1, 2024.

The match was played at National Stadium Ramat Gan in Ramat Gan.