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Hapoel Ra'anana vs Tzeirey Taibe — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Ra'anana
Hapoel Ra'anana
FT
2 – 1
Tzeirey Taibe
Tzeirey Taibe
9/3/2022State CupState Cup · 5th Round (Liga Alef)Karnei Oren Memorial Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hapoel Ra'anana39%
×Draw27%
Tzeirey Taibe34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Ra'anana
1.29
Tzeirey Taibe
1.17

Hapoel Ra'anana creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hapoel Ra'anana
1.33
Tzeirey Taibe
1.00

allows per match

Hapoel Ra'anana
1.33
Tzeirey Taibe
1.25

finishing

Hapoel Ra'anana+0.00on par
Tzeirey Taibe+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Ra'anana ↓

Tzeirey Taibe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hapoel Ra'anana or draw
66%
Hapoel Ra'anana or Tzeirey Taibe
73%
Draw or Tzeirey Taibe
61%

Winning margin

Hapoel Ra'anana wins by 2+
18%
Tzeirey Taibe wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hapoel Ra'anana 1+ goals
72%
Hapoel Ra'anana 2+ goals
37%
Hapoel Ra'anana 3+ goals
14%
Tzeirey Taibe 1+ goals
69%
Tzeirey Taibe 2+ goals
33%
Tzeirey Taibe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Ra'anana (draw refunded)
54%
Tzeirey Taibe (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Ra'anana at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Tzeirey Taibe away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Ra'anana attack 1.33 + Tzeirey Taibe defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tzeirey Taibe attack 1.00 + Hapoel Ra'anana defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hapoel Ra'anana scores more
39%
level
27%
Tzeirey Taibe scores more
34%

Hapoel Ra'anana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hapoel Ra'anana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Hapoel Ra'anana 2–1 Tzeirey Taibe

Hapoel Ra'anana beat Tzeirey Taibe 2-1 in State Cup on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Karnei Oren Memorial Field in Ra'anana.