Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv — Ligat Ha'al 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 34+ matches
Hapoel Petah Tikva24%
Maccabi Tel Aviv51%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Maccabi Tel Aviv creates 59% more chances
Season form · 34 home / 125 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hapoel Petah Tikva ↓
Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hapoel Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches
Maccabi Tel Aviv away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.97 · 125 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.03 + Maccabi Tel Aviv defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00
Maccabi Tel Aviv attack 1.92 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.59
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Maccabi Tel Aviv at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Maccabi Tel Aviv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Beitar JerusalemMaccabi Tel Aviv
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Netanya
Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Kiryat ShmonaHapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Haifa
Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Katamon
Ashdod
Maccabi Bnei RainaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Hapoel Petah Tikva host Maccabi Tel Aviv on Sunday, 21 January 2024 at 18:00. The match is part of the Ligat Ha'al 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
Hapoel Petah Tikva and Maccabi Tel Aviv drew 0-0 in Ligat Ha'al on January 21, 2024.
The match was played at HaMoshava Stadium in Petach-Tikva.