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Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Hod HaSharon — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Petah Tikva
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Hapoel Hod HaSharon
Hapoel Hod HaSharon
A. Berkovich 53'
B. Azubel 45', 25'
R. Ben Navi 6'
E. Rohana 2'
12/1/2024State CupState Cup · 7th RoundHaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva75%
×Draw14%
Hapoel Hod HaSharon11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Petah Tikva
3.02
Hapoel Hod HaSharon
1.09

Hapoel Petah Tikva creates 177% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.71
Hapoel Hod HaSharon
1.33

allows per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva
0.86
Hapoel Hod HaSharon
4.33

finishing

Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par
Hapoel Hod HaSharon+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Petah Tikva ↓

Hapoel Hod HaSharon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Hapoel Petah Tikva or draw
89%
Hapoel Petah Tikva or Hapoel Hod HaSharon
86%
Draw or Hapoel Hod HaSharon
25%

Winning margin

Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+
55%
Hapoel Hod HaSharon wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals
95%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals
80%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals
57%
Hapoel Hod HaSharon 1+ goals
66%
Hapoel Hod HaSharon 2+ goals
30%
Hapoel Hod HaSharon 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
87%
Hapoel Hod HaSharon (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Hapoel Hod HaSharon away — creates 1.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.71 + Hapoel Hod HaSharon defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.02

Hapoel Hod HaSharon attack 1.33 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more
75%
level
14%
Hapoel Hod HaSharon scores more
11%

Hapoel Petah Tikva at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Hapoel Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
E. Rohana
6'
R. Ben Navi
25'
B. Azubel
45'
B. Azubel
53'
A. Berkovich

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hapoel Petah Tikva 5 – 0 Hapoel Hod HaSharon

Hapoel Petah Tikva beat Hapoel Hod HaSharon 5-0 in State Cup on December 1, 2024.

Goals: E. Rohana (2'), R. Ben Navi (6'), B. Azubel (25', 45'), A. Berkovich (53').

The match was played at HaMoshava Stadium in Petach-Tikva.