Hapoel Petah Tikva 0–1 Hapoel Haifa: Result & Stats

Hapoel Petah Tikva

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hapoel Haifa

2/14/2026

Ligat Ha'al · Round 23HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva37%

×Draw28%

Hapoel Haifa35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Petah TikvaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Haifa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.18

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.21

Hapoel Haifa

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 103 away

1.03

creates per match

1.10

1.26

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.03

Hapoel Haifa

1.10

allows per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.26

Hapoel Haifa

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Hapoel Haifa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Petah Tikva ↓

Hapoel Haifa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Petah Tikva or draw

65%

Hapoel Petah Tikva or Hapoel Haifa

72%

Draw or Hapoel Haifa

63%

Winning margin

Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+

16%

Hapoel Haifa wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals

70%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals

34%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals

12%

Hapoel Haifa 1+ goals

69%

Hapoel Haifa 2+ goals

33%

Hapoel Haifa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

51%

Hapoel Haifa (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Hapoel Haifa away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.39 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.03 + Hapoel Haifa defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Hapoel Haifa attack 1.10 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more

37%

level

28%

Hapoel Haifa scores more

35%

Hapoel Petah Tikva at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hapoel Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff