Hapoel Petah Tikva 1–0 Hapoel Ashkelon

Hapoel Petah Tikva

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Ashkelon

6/11/2020

Liga Leumit · Relegation Round - 1HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva44%

×Draw31%

Hapoel Ashkelon25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Petah TikvaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Ashkelon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.78

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.15

Hapoel Ashkelon

0.78

Hapoel Petah Tikva creates 47% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 6 away

1.47

creates per match

0.67

0.89

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.47

Hapoel Ashkelon

0.67

allows per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva

0.89

Hapoel Ashkelon

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Hapoel Ashkelon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Petah Tikva ↓

Hapoel Ashkelon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Hapoel Petah Tikva or draw

75%

Hapoel Petah Tikva or Hapoel Ashkelon

69%

Draw or Hapoel Ashkelon

56%

Winning margin

Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+

19%

Hapoel Ashkelon wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals

68%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals

32%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals

11%

Hapoel Ashkelon 1+ goals

54%

Hapoel Ashkelon 2+ goals

18%

Hapoel Ashkelon 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

64%

Hapoel Ashkelon (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.89 · 70 matches

Hapoel Ashkelon away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.47 + Hapoel Ashkelon defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.15

Hapoel Ashkelon attack 0.67 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more

44%

level

31%

Hapoel Ashkelon scores more

25%

Hapoel Petah Tikva at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hapoel Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff