Hapoel Petah Tikva 0–2 Beitar Jerusalem

Hapoel Petah Tikva

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Beitar Jerusalem

4/21/2024

Ligat Ha'al · Relegation Round - 3HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva31%

×Draw26%

Beitar Jerusalem42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Petah TikvaExpected goals in this matchBeitar Jerusalem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.42

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.18

Beitar Jerusalem

1.42

Beitar Jerusalem creates 20% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 120 away

1.03

creates per match

1.57

1.26

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.03

Beitar Jerusalem

1.57

allows per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.26

Beitar Jerusalem

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Petah Tikva ↓

Beitar Jerusalem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Petah Tikva or draw

58%

Hapoel Petah Tikva or Beitar Jerusalem

74%

Draw or Beitar Jerusalem

69%

Winning margin

Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+

13%

Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals

69%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals

33%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals

12%

Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals

76%

Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals

41%

Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

42%

Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Beitar Jerusalem away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.33 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.03 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Beitar Jerusalem attack 1.57 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more

31%

level

26%

Beitar Jerusalem scores more

42%

Beitar Jerusalem at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Beitar Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff