Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Ashdod — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Petah Tikva
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ashdod
Ashdod
12/9/2023Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 8HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva38%
×Draw27%
Ashdod35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.27
Ashdod
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 119 away

creates per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.03
Ashdod
1.17

allows per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.26
Ashdod
1.51

finishing

Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par
Ashdod+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Petah Tikva ↓

Ashdod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Petah Tikva or draw
65%
Hapoel Petah Tikva or Ashdod
73%
Draw or Ashdod
62%

Winning margin

Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+
17%
Ashdod wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals
72%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals
36%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals
14%
Ashdod 1+ goals
70%
Ashdod 2+ goals
34%
Ashdod 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
52%
Ashdod (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Ashdod away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.51 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.03 + Ashdod defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ashdod attack 1.17 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more
38%
level
27%
Ashdod scores more
35%

Hapoel Petah Tikva at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hapoel Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Hapoel Petah Tikva 1–1 Ashdod

Hapoel Petah Tikva and Ashdod drew 1-1 in Ligat Ha'al on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at HaMoshava Stadium in Petach-Tikva.