Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ashdod vs Hapoel Petah Tikva — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Ashdod
Ashdod
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Petah Tikva
4/27/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Relegation Round - 4Yud-Alef Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ashdod44%
×Draw25%
Hapoel Petah Tikva31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ashdod
1.56
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.25

Ashdod creates 25% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 35 away

creates per match

Ashdod
1.27
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.09

allows per match

Ashdod
1.41
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.86

finishing

Ashdod+0.00on par
Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashdod ↓

Hapoel Petah Tikva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ashdod or draw
69%
Ashdod or Hapoel Petah Tikva
75%
Draw or Hapoel Petah Tikva
56%

Winning margin

Ashdod wins by 2+
22%
Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ashdod 1+ goals
79%
Ashdod 2+ goals
46%
Ashdod 3+ goals
21%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals
71%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals
36%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ashdod (draw refunded)
59%
Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashdod at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 118 matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashdod attack 1.27 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.56

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.09 + Ashdod defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ashdod scores more
44%
level
25%
Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more
31%

Ashdod at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Ashdod 1–0 Hapoel Petah Tikva

Ashdod beat Hapoel Petah Tikva 1-0 in Ligat Ha'al on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Yud-Alef Stadium in Ashdod.