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Hapoel Nazareth Illit vs Ironi Tiberias — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Tiberias
2/16/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 22Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Hapoel Nazareth Illit34%
×Draw26%
Ironi Tiberias40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.26
Ironi Tiberias
1.40

Ironi Tiberias creates 11% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 36 away

creates per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.39
Ironi Tiberias
1.64

allows per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.15
Ironi Tiberias
1.14

finishing

Hapoel Nazareth Illit+0.00on par
Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Nazareth Illit ↓

Ironi Tiberias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hapoel Nazareth Illit or draw
60%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit or Ironi Tiberias
74%
Draw or Ironi Tiberias
66%

Winning margin

Hapoel Nazareth Illit wins by 2+
15%
Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1+ goals
72%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2+ goals
36%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3+ goals
13%
Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals
75%
Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals
41%
Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Nazareth Illit (draw refunded)
46%
Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

Ironi Tiberias away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit attack 1.39 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.64 + Hapoel Nazareth Illit defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Nazareth Illit scores more
34%
level
26%
Ironi Tiberias scores more
40%

Ironi Tiberias at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1–1 Ironi Tiberias

Hapoel Nazareth Illit and Ironi Tiberias drew 1-1 in Liga Leumit on February 16, 2024.

The match was played at Green Stadium in Nazareth Illit.