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Hapoel Nazareth Illit vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1/17/2025Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 19Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Hapoel Nazareth Illit44%
×Draw26%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.42
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.10

Hapoel Nazareth Illit creates 29% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 112 away

creates per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.39
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.06

allows per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.15
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.44

finishing

Hapoel Nazareth Illit+0.00on par
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Nazareth Illit ↓

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Nazareth Illit or draw
71%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
74%
Draw or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
56%

Winning margin

Hapoel Nazareth Illit wins by 2+
21%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1+ goals
76%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2+ goals
41%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3+ goals
17%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1+ goals
67%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2+ goals
30%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Nazareth Illit (draw refunded)
60%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit attack 1.39 + Hapoel Umm al-Fahm defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm attack 1.06 + Hapoel Nazareth Illit defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hapoel Nazareth Illit scores more
44%
level
26%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm scores more
29%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hapoel Nazareth Illit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2–1 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Hapoel Nazareth Illit beat Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2-1 in Liga Leumit on January 17, 2025.

The match was played at Green Stadium in Nazareth Illit.