Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3–2 Hapoel Rishon LeZion

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

11/8/2024

Liga Leumit · Round 13Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Hapoel Nazareth Illit41%

×Draw27%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Nazareth IllitExpected goals in this matchHapoel Rishon LeZion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.17

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.36

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.17

Hapoel Nazareth Illit creates 16% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 129 away

1.39

creates per match

1.18

1.15

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.39

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.18

allows per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.15

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Nazareth Illit+0.00on par

Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Nazareth Illit ↓

Hapoel Rishon LeZion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Nazareth Illit or draw

68%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit or Hapoel Rishon LeZion

73%

Draw or Hapoel Rishon LeZion

59%

Winning margin

Hapoel Nazareth Illit wins by 2+

19%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1+ goals

74%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2+ goals

39%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3+ goals

16%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals

69%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals

33%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Nazareth Illit (draw refunded)

56%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit attack 1.39 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.18 + Hapoel Nazareth Illit defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hapoel Nazareth Illit scores more

41%

level

27%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more

32%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hapoel Nazareth Illit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff