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Hapoel Nazareth Illit vs Hapoel Rishon LeZion — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Hapoel Nazareth Illitadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
3/5/2024State CupState Cup · Round of 16Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hapoel Nazareth Illit52%
×Draw23%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.80
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.15

Hapoel Nazareth Illit creates 57% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.60
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.00

allows per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.30
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
2.00

finishing

Hapoel Nazareth Illit+0.00on par
Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Nazareth Illit ↓

Hapoel Rishon LeZion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hapoel Nazareth Illit or draw
76%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit or Hapoel Rishon LeZion
77%
Draw or Hapoel Rishon LeZion
48%

Winning margin

Hapoel Nazareth Illit wins by 2+
29%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1+ goals
83%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2+ goals
54%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3+ goals
27%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals
68%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals
32%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Nazareth Illit (draw refunded)
68%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit attack 1.60 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.00 + Hapoel Nazareth Illit defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hapoel Nazareth Illit scores more
52%
level
23%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more
24%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hapoel Nazareth Illit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Nazareth Illit vs Hapoel Rishon LeZion

Hapoel Nazareth Illit beat Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3-1 in State Cup on March 5, 2024.

The match was played at Green Stadium in Nazareth Illit.